In most major cities, crime is actually DOWN. In Phoenix, while ID theft is up (obviously...in this economy it's to be expected), violent crime has seen a steady decrease. Auto crime and theft is holding steady, but vandalism is up. There is worry about drug cartel violence spreading to Phoenix, but as of right now it seems to be a media buzzword more than a fact of any life.
Other friends of mine in Houston and Boston have noticed the slight trend too, but arms sales are still high in those cities. Boston is more obvious, since Mass has some pretty strict laws in that respect, but shops still have product. The firearms are harder to get, but there doesn't seem to be as much "panic" as in Houston or in the Midwest. Phoenix has always been an expensive place for firearms, so there's no shock there.
The spike in arms sales is strictly a panic situation. Much like last year when we saw '94 Geo Metros going for $10,000 because many thought that this was the ONLY time they could get a gas sipper because they didn't think ahead. Many then also sold autos that weren't that inefficent for fire sale prices just to get a Prius or Metro, only to find the markets stabilizing. Now, alot of those small cars are going BACK on the market, and auto makers have a surplus of Prius and Escape Hybrids on the lots!
I honestly feel we may see the same thing with firearms. With "Panic" comes irrational actions. We're all guilty of it: It's what makes us human. In fact, I spent quite alot of time today meditating on what I truly need and what is purely a "want" with no practical merit. Many new AR-15, AK-47 and other assault rifle owners have never owned a gun in THEIR LIFE and are simply buying because they hear the baseless rumors and only know about firearms from Hollywood movies. I have seen MANY buy a $2000 AR-15, buy another 5,000 rounds in ammo and never realized how it's used. In fact, at a local gun shop I frequent, A man traded in his '01 Nissan pickup to buy ONE AR, a Springfield pistol and massive counts of ammo!! The clerk told me he asked him why he needed a gun quickly and he said "Well, they say there going to ban all guns, so I got to get them now". Turns out the truck was his only mode of transport, and his wife (who he called to pick him up with his new purchases) refused to come by after hearing that he sold the family car to get two firearms.
Others are buying out of "implied urgency". Think back to the small car analogy again. People spent TONS of money over sticker on compacts to "fight the gas crisis", and the same types also bought a TON of cheap little Chinese made motorscooters that suddenly cropped up during the fuel spike. Many of the people who bought them in Phoenix drove LESS than 10 miles a day to and from work!! Now, they have a car they really don't use, and a Chinese scooter that broke down within the first two months that they can't unload. They did not NEED a $30k Prius when the $10k Chevy Malibu was actually a decent car. But, because it was a "Hybrid" and dealers were "running out" during the fuel crisis, they bought hard and now are paying for it.
This translates well to firearms purchases. Many of us on here know about "applied usage" and how one gun is not best in every situation. The AR-15 is a fine rifle, but in less than 50 meters while you're out grocery shopping, it's about as useful as an electric butter knife. Others insist they're buying it for "Home Defence", but (and I don't know about you folks) at 3AM when you have an intruder, a Shotgun or revolver is ALOT easier to operate half asleep and stressed than a rifle with so many attachments (because it seems that everyone who hasn't owned a weapon before thinks that "tactical" accessories make the gun better) that you need to download the PDF before firing it!! It's the mentality that an assault rifle is *the* gun to have that has people making purchases that are frankly unsafe. When they need a revolver, they will go for the Uber-Glock because that's what hollywood pushes. When they can function quite well with a pump action Maverick 88, they will get the blinged out tactical version with folding stocks, extended tubes, solid slugs, laser sights and custom front and rear pistol grips because that's BETTER!!!
And more expensive.
That's not to say there is anything wrong with those weapons... hardly! But, does the manager of an olive garden who lives on the 11th floor of a middle class building really need to spend $3000 to $5000 on a weapon to defend his family when he can spend $1500 to $2000 on SEVERAL more applicable longarms and pistols that may not look as cool, but will be far more effective?
That's where the panic is coming from. The same consumerist mentality that got the US and the world into this economic crisis is driving gun prices artifically sky high. Why buy a .38/.357 when you can buy a .454 Casull because it's MORE BADARSE (and twice to three times the ammo cost, and with the inability to control as well for an infrequent shooter in tight spaces)? My prediction: Soon...not sure when... I think we will see a market correction on assault rifles and subsequent equipment. Sure, the basic AK's and such will still fetch decent prices, but those $3000 AR's and $800 SKS rifles will soon be coming down in price and hitting the market when the wives (or husbands) wonder why they're having a hard time making bills while the overpriced gun sits in the closet collecting dust after he's shown it off to his buddies in HR at the office. When an SKS goes for $300 and the AK goes for $1000, 9 times out of ten the uneducated will buy the AK because it's "cooler" and the movies tell us it's a mean gun, even when they fire the same round and the SKS is technically a more accurate weapon!
There will be a correction. When and how much, I have NO idea! But.... something like that will occur.