Joined
·
28,421 Posts
I've been noodling this for a little while and have decided to get out my crystal ball and prognosticate. We've seen an interesting evolution in handguns over the past several decades. The short version is that innovation in handguns used to be driven by military needs. Now it's being driven by civilian self defense market, mostly dominated by the Concealed Carry Revolution. We've gone from the 1911 and Hi Power, where "pocket pistols" were mocked and chambered for cartridges questionable to many; where if you wanted acceptable "power" in your pocket gun, you settled for a .38 snub, to a world of ever evolving smaller semi-autos. Naturally, I'd argue that George Kelgren pioneered this evolutionary branch, beginning with his Grendel and moving forward into Kel Tec with, first, the P11 then the PF9, as well as the P32 and the P3AT for true pocket guns. Yes, there was the Colt Pony and a few knockoffs of that but it never seemed to catch on. Maybe they were too expensive? And competitors saw the PF9 and the P3AT and followed suit, taking Kelgren's basic concept and improving it with their own offerings. For a long time, the palm-sized market was a single-stack 9mm about the size of an open palm and the "pocket gun" market was all about a tiny, single column, .380ACP, usually hammer-fired DAO, like the P3AT. Then Ruger finally did what Kel Tec fans had been asking Kel Tec to do for the PF9 and P3AT; they made it striker-fired, which vastly improved the trigger. And several 1911 makers were coming out with palm-sized 1911 variants with Sig's offering seeming to be the most popular. Then Sig did to the P11 what Kel Tec fans had been asking for and, as Ruger did with the PF9 and P38T, made it striker fired. There were other improvements to be sure, but that was the big one. And suddenly, every gun maker in the world had to have a palm-sized double-stack 9mm.
But it was all driven by the Concealed Carry Revolution.
Around the same time as this innovation was starting, FN answered a military competition with a new ammunition, the 5.7x28. It offers a screaming fast, small and light round, that has tons of range and can penetrate soft armor, and can stuff a truly impressive number of rounds in a magazine. It didn't really gain market acceptance at the time. The ammunition and FN's eventual handgun were both stunningly expensive and the handgun only came in "duty size." After more than a decade of languishing in the shadows eventually other gun makers, again starting with Ruger, started offering their own guns chambered in it. While there are still only a half dozen or so, it's still more than "one" and it is gaining more market penetration, tracking similar to the slow acceptance of the now beloved, and equally expensive, 10mm. The success of the ARMSCOR 22TCM echo's this in the civilian market as well.
America's "Gun Culture 2.0" clearly wants smaller, more concealable, handguns which hold a lot more ammunition, while it equally wants more powerful ammunition in a smaller package and is more than willing to accept a smaller diameter to get it.
Two recent innovations, I believe, give a roadsign to the future, when considered with the above consumer trends. First, a new handgun ammunition has been introduced; the .30 Super Carry. It comes close to the performance of 9mm but is smaller than its competitor and its smaller size allows a significant increase in the number of rounds in a magazine. So more rounds in the same space without sacrificing performance. Second is the military approval of the Sig 6.8, composite case ammunition. The short version is that the U.S. military has "approved" Sig's cartridge which uses a new cartridge case designed to allow pressures of astounding 80,000 PSI! Wowsers!!!
So here's where I channel The Great Carnac. I predict that the next real innovation is going to be the introduction and popularization of a small diameter cartridge case and bullet (.22 or .25) with a high velocity driven by an internal pressure previously impossible in handguns. It will be able to penetrate soft armor of up to Level IIIA with some loadings. This will be driven by a composite case similar to Sigs, with a steel base. It may have a poly body but probably brass because it's reloadable and is better able to withstand the pressure than poly. This will allow chambering in a palm-sized gun with a magazine capacity of 15 in the same mag volume as fits ten 9mm. Think of a souped up .30SC only in .22 cal. The lighter bullet weights will help overcome the extra recoil consequences of the much higher velocity.
Because of the inertia of the 9mm, I'm thinking this will take 25 to 30 years. I'm basing that on how long it took for 9mm to finally overtake .45ACP. Going from then end of WWII, where arguable the .45 gained its mythic status to American shooters, to the 1980's, when the introduction of the Glock G17 (and special marketing to police) really started to take the 9mm over the critical acceptance line, is about 30-ish years. I'm not sure Gun Culture 2.0 has the same inertia that post WWII handgun advocates did but human intransigence is difficult to over state.
Not sure what they'll call it. "22 Ultra Carry" sounds good to me.
Peace favor your sword,
Kirk
But it was all driven by the Concealed Carry Revolution.
Around the same time as this innovation was starting, FN answered a military competition with a new ammunition, the 5.7x28. It offers a screaming fast, small and light round, that has tons of range and can penetrate soft armor, and can stuff a truly impressive number of rounds in a magazine. It didn't really gain market acceptance at the time. The ammunition and FN's eventual handgun were both stunningly expensive and the handgun only came in "duty size." After more than a decade of languishing in the shadows eventually other gun makers, again starting with Ruger, started offering their own guns chambered in it. While there are still only a half dozen or so, it's still more than "one" and it is gaining more market penetration, tracking similar to the slow acceptance of the now beloved, and equally expensive, 10mm. The success of the ARMSCOR 22TCM echo's this in the civilian market as well.
America's "Gun Culture 2.0" clearly wants smaller, more concealable, handguns which hold a lot more ammunition, while it equally wants more powerful ammunition in a smaller package and is more than willing to accept a smaller diameter to get it.
Two recent innovations, I believe, give a roadsign to the future, when considered with the above consumer trends. First, a new handgun ammunition has been introduced; the .30 Super Carry. It comes close to the performance of 9mm but is smaller than its competitor and its smaller size allows a significant increase in the number of rounds in a magazine. So more rounds in the same space without sacrificing performance. Second is the military approval of the Sig 6.8, composite case ammunition. The short version is that the U.S. military has "approved" Sig's cartridge which uses a new cartridge case designed to allow pressures of astounding 80,000 PSI! Wowsers!!!
So here's where I channel The Great Carnac. I predict that the next real innovation is going to be the introduction and popularization of a small diameter cartridge case and bullet (.22 or .25) with a high velocity driven by an internal pressure previously impossible in handguns. It will be able to penetrate soft armor of up to Level IIIA with some loadings. This will be driven by a composite case similar to Sigs, with a steel base. It may have a poly body but probably brass because it's reloadable and is better able to withstand the pressure than poly. This will allow chambering in a palm-sized gun with a magazine capacity of 15 in the same mag volume as fits ten 9mm. Think of a souped up .30SC only in .22 cal. The lighter bullet weights will help overcome the extra recoil consequences of the much higher velocity.
Because of the inertia of the 9mm, I'm thinking this will take 25 to 30 years. I'm basing that on how long it took for 9mm to finally overtake .45ACP. Going from then end of WWII, where arguable the .45 gained its mythic status to American shooters, to the 1980's, when the introduction of the Glock G17 (and special marketing to police) really started to take the 9mm over the critical acceptance line, is about 30-ish years. I'm not sure Gun Culture 2.0 has the same inertia that post WWII handgun advocates did but human intransigence is difficult to over state.
Not sure what they'll call it. "22 Ultra Carry" sounds good to me.
Peace favor your sword,
Kirk
