Todays market. Picing increasing, thanks politics!

Discussion in 'Hi-Point Carbines' started by ndindy, Jan 11, 2016.

  1. ndindy

    ndindy Member

    154
    2
    And don't panic, I doubt that HP itself is raising it's prices. I track HP carbines (only the carbines) on the internet as they give a pretty reliable indicator of the firearms market as a whole. As I predicted before O started flapping his gums again about gun control, the off the shelf pricing has already started rising. As a whole so far I've seen a rise of between $30 and $100 for the 'starting' price on dealer held firearms (995ts has been the lower move and the 40/45 higher) and a privately held increase to match the old dealer held starting prices.

    The more interesting fact, is that in the short term at least the dealers are shooting themselves in the foot as it were. The TS line were consistent sellers in the $225-240 range. Some went cheaper and some went higher depending on the luck of the auction. But on average, about $225 was the selling price. I saw several go sub 200 that I kind of kicked myself for not picking up. At the same time I saw pages and pages of auctions that didn't follow the rule below with 0 bids for months at a time.

    As a rule to sell you had to start at or below $200 with no reserve and you would see action driving upwards. Any auction starting at 240 or more, 0 bids, auction after auction. If you can do simple math, add in the shipping + the FFL and it didn't take much to reach or exceed what it would cost you to just drive down the street and buy one from a brick and mortar shop. And there is 0 wrong with that, it's just impossible for me to track what local prices are.

    As a secondary rule, start the auction at $100 and you would see a LOT of action and people falling into the mindset that they must win an auction would often drive the prices higher. If you want to make money on an auction, that's how you do it. Get as many people involved as possible, all working against each other and you win. There is of course the risk that your will fall into the cracks, but it's a calculated risk.

    So over the last couple weeks I've seen almost every dealer held TS starting in the 240 range, increasing to the 400-500 range and almost every used one starting at 225. The result 0 bids on every auction being held. There have been a couple monkey stocks that are starting lower, and still selling below the $200 mark but they are thinning out.

    If we see the same panic buying that we saw in 2008 and are only recently recovering from I would expect to some of the higher priced guns starting to actually sell as the overall prices increase accordingly. I saw more than 1 decent $500 AR 15 sell for over 2k during the height of the last panic, and as those become plain unaffordable to many, they will buy the lesser firearms even at elevated prices. And of course kick themselves a few years down the road.

    The HP carbine is a decent little gun for what it is, but I can't convince myself that it is worth anywhere close to the $500 mark I saw some selling for in 2008-2009.

    I remember selling some of my glock mags that I paid $15 each for, for over $100 during clintons ban and then rebought them a few years later for $20. I've done the same every panic, pick guns up cheap from the remorseful, sell them during the panic.

    I don't believe this current increase will come anywhere close to matching a few years ago, but, if you have one that you are considering selling it may be a good idea to hold off a bit longer. As the current crop aren't selling for any more than they were I don't think you can hurt yourself by waiting and there is a good chance you will help yourself. As an investment, the current prices climbing is IMO a poor investment to make. I think that people going that route are going to get hurt similar to those that were buying gold at the absolute height. Gold will likely rebound but the amount of rebound required to make $10 is going to be substantial. In all likelihood you can make $10 this week by collecting cans :)