Violent Crime Drops Again
by Kirk Lawson


Violent Crime has dropped again, but you probably did not hear about it.

The FBI's Uniform Crime Report (UCR) shows that Violent Crime rates have fallen yet again. This time, they dropped 3.9% in 2018, continuing a downward slide. On the "10 year trend" bullet point from the UCR, Violent Crime fell 9% below 2009 levels, falling 14.6% from the same year. In fact, the Violent Crime rate now is lower than since about 1970.

At the same time as the continuously falling violence rates, firearms ownership climes. FBI National Instant Check System (NICS) statistics show an ever increasing rate of background checks for firearms purchases, a statistic generally considered to reflect the over-all ownership rates in the U.S.

That is not to say that increasing firearms ownership automatically decreases violent crime. While it is true that there is a strong correlation, the old saying goes "correlation is not causation." However, what it does clearly prove is that increasing firearms availability does not increase violent crime. Not only is there no shown causation, there is not even a correlation. In other words, not only is there no fire, there is not even smoke. As gun ownership is rising, violent crime is falling.

But, strangely, the general public not seem to know about it. Why is this? A quick and admittedly unscientific "survey" of google results shows exactly 4 hits about the drop in violent crime. And that is only if you include a wikipedia article. Only two of the results were focused on the national level. But that does not seem to match the daily drumbeat of "news" from the legacy media which bashes their customers over the head with gruesome accounts and news stories on a seemingly endless basis. Not only does the general public not seem to know that violent crime is actually decreasing, but they do not seem to believe it either. A Gallup poll says most Americans believe that violent crime is up, year-over-year. Perhaps part of the issue is the old saw, "if it bleeds, it leads." Humans seem to actually want to read about horrible events. We focus on it. There is also a belief among some that the legacy media has a vested interest in promoting a perception of increasing violence because it fits their preferred narrative and allows them to promote a political and ideological position.

In any case, here are the bullet points to take away.
  • Firearms ownership in the U.S. appears to be rising year-over-year
  • Despite that, Violent Crime in the U.S. is definitely declining year-over-year
  • Most Americans don't know and don't believe it